Modeling Long-Term Interactions Among Forest Threats and Fuel Treatments in Central Oregon Forests

Helen Maffei, Alan Ager, Becky K. Kerns, and Ken Boucher

USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection (1); USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station (2,3); USDA Forest Service, Central Oregon Fire Management Services (4)

We describe a prototype risk assessment framework to analyze the effects of fuel reduction treatments on multiple, interacting forest threats in the lodgepole pine and mixed conifer forests of central Oregon.  The framework links a number of forest simulation and GIS models to simulate the effects of fuel reduction treatments on forest succession, potential bark beetle mortality, wildfire probability, and the spread of invasive plants.  As a study and test case area, we are using a high priority landscape located in the Davis Late Successional Reserve (LSR) in central Oregon on the Deschutes National Forest. In this LSR, disturbances like wildfire and bark beetles pose a threat to key habitat for the northern spotted owl and other wildlife species.  The spread of invasive plants is also a potential threat as understory species contribute virtually all the plant biodiversity in these forests, regulate many processes, and provide critical wildlife habitat.  We are simulating a range of management scenarios over time to examine interactions among competing threats, specific types of management activities, and their associated risk.  In this poster we describe our modeling approach and outputs from preliminary application of the models to the Davis Late Successional Reserve and other study areas. 

corresponding author:

Helen Maffei
USDA Forest Service
Forest Health Protection
Deschutes National Forest
1001 SW Emkay Drive
Bend, Oregon 97702
541-383-5591
hmaffei@fs.fed.us